Welcome to the exponential era
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold the 85% of all paper photos of the world ..
In a very few years, his business model disappeared leading to bankruptcy.
What happened to Kodak will happen to many industries in the next 10 years - and many people do not realize it.
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later would not take photographs on paper again?
However, digital cameras were invented in 1975. Like all exponential technologies, they were a disappointment for a long time before they became far superior and were the main trend within a few years.
Now it will pass with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the Fourth Industrial Revolution!
The software will change most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
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Uber is just a software tool, it does not own any vehicle, and now it is the largest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the largest hotel company in the world despite not owning any property.
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Artificial Intelligence: Computers will be exponentially better at understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go Player in the world (Chinese game more complex than chess), 10 years earlier than expected.
In USA young lawyers no longer get a job because with IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (in basic matters) in seconds, with an accuracy of 90% compared to the accuracy of 70% of humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future
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Watson Health is already helping nurses diagnose cancer, with 4 times more accurately than human nurses. Facebook now has a recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In the 2030, computers will be smarter than humans.
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Autonomous cars: the first autonomous cars will appear in the 2018. Around the 2020, the entire industry will start to have problems. You do not want to have a car again. You will call a car with your phone, it will appear where you are and it will take you to your destination. You will not have to park it, you will only have to pay for the distance traveled and you will be able to work while traveling. Our children will not need a driver's license and will never own a car. The cities will change because we will need an 90% -95% less cars. We can transform the parking beaches into parks. 1.2 millions of people in the world die every year from car accidents. Now we have an accident in each 100,000 kilometers; with autonomous cars that will change to an accident in 10 million kilometers. This will save a million lives each
year
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Most automotive companies could go bankrupt. The traditional automotive companies use the evolutionary approach and only make a better car while the technology companies (Tesla, Goole, Apple) have the revolutionary approach and manufacture computers with wheels. I spoke with VW and Audi engineers and they are completely terrified by Tesla.
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Insurance companies will have terrible problems because without accidents, insurance will be 100 times cheaper. Your car insurance model will disappear.
The real estate business will change. Because if you can work while you travel, people will move farther from the cities to live. '
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You will not need as many garages if fewer people have cars, so living in cities could be more attractive because people like to be with other people. That will not change.
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The electric cars will be the conventional in the 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will be electric. The electricity will be incredibly clean and cheap: the production of solar energy has been in an incredible exponential curve for 30 years, but only now can you see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed than fossil energy. The price of solar energy will fall so much that all coal companies will be out of business for the 2025.
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With cheap electricity comes abundant and cheap water through desalination. Imagine what would be possible if everyone could have as much clean water as they wanted, almost without cost.
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Health: The price of the Tricorder X will be announced this year. There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the Star Trek Tricorder) that interacts with your phone, that can make a scan of your retina, will draw samples of your blood and your breath in it. Then 54 will analyze biological markers that will identify almost any disease. It will be cheap, so in some years everyone on this planet will have access to world-class medicine, almost free.
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3D printing: The price of the cheapest printer fell from US $ 18,000 to US $ 400 in 10 years. In that same time, it became 100 times faster. All the big shoe companies started printing shoes in 3D. Parts of aircraft are currently printed in 3D at remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for large quantities of parts that they used to have in the past
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At the end of this year, the new smartphones will have possibilities to scan in 3D. Then you can scan your foot in 3D and print the perfect shoe in your house. In China, they have already printed in 3D a building of 6 flats. For the 2027, 20% of everything that is produced will be printed in 3D.
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Business opportunities: If you think of a market niche you want to participate in, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have this?” If the answer is yes, how can you do it faster? If it doesn't connect with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed to succeed in the 20th century is bound to fail in the 21st.
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Job: 70% -80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is still not clear if there will be enough new jobs in that short time
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Agriculture: There will be a $100 dollar robot in the future. Farmers in third world countries will be able to become managers of their own fields instead of working every day in their fields. Hydroponics will need much less water. The first beef steaks produced in petri dishes are now available and will be cheaper than those produced by the same cattle by 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural land is used for cattle. Imagine if you didn't need that space anymore. There are several start-up companies that will provide insect protein soon. They contain more protein than meat. It will be marked as an "alternative protein source" because most people still reject the idea of eating insects.
The analysis of soils and crops will be made from satellites and drones and the control of pests, nutrition and diseases will be formulated in a sustainable way from a computer.
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Education: in one more generation, the campuses will be reduced to laboratories for testing and research and development of cases and techniques, being the instruction by Internet and videoconference. The tests will also be done remotely and will detect if the person "knows" or is copying or memorizing.
Every person without technical or specialized education will be a financial slave, without full rights of citizenship.
There's an app called “Moodies” that can already tell you what mood you're in. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell if you're lying by your facial expressions. Imagine a political debate showing when they are telling the truth or lying.
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The bitcoins will become normal use this year and may even become the reserve for the coins.
Paper money will disappear in 2 generations and every transaction will be electronic.
- Currently, the average life increases 3 months per year. Four years ago, the average life was 79 years, now it is 80 years. The increase itself is growing and for the 2036 it will probably be one year of increase per year. So we could live for a long time, probably more than 100 ...
The only thing that could stop this evolution is the annihilation of the human race by a few powerful and uneducated fools.”
Notes from someone made during the summit of the University of the Singularity carried out in Messe Berlin, Germany in April of the 2017
